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Assessing impacts on jobs and growth

Assessing impacts on jobs and growth

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EIB Group impact on employment - the short- and long-term impact of EUR 232 bn of investment in 2017

EIB economists are working in collaboration with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre in Seville, using a macroeconomic model called RHOMOLO to assess the impact of operations supported by EIB Group and EFSI on jobs and growth in Europe.

This work complements the banks other impact assessment activities. While investment outputs and outcomes are assessed at a project level (through for example the Results Measurement framework), the wider economic impact of such activities in terms of indirect and induced effects typically cannot be measured at a project level, as they reflect complex economic interlinkages.

For example, when an internet cable is laid, it is possible to directly measure project outputs and outcomes such as project employment, kilometres of cable laid, households connected, and the increase in data transmission speed. However, the wider economic impact of things such as the production of the cable, increased spending by project workers, and the effects of faster internet on the market access and competitiveness of regional businesses, is much harder to capture at the project level. Special efforts can be made to explore these impacts for individual projects (see also the EIB collaboration with the Global Development Network), but on a broader scale, macroeconomic models are used to estimate overall impact in terms of GDP and jobs.

The RHOMOLO model is a well-established model that was originally developed by the European Commission to assess the macroeconomic impact of EU policies, such as EU cohesion policy, to determine whether scarce public financing is being used effectively. The EIB’s collaboration with the Joint Research Centre is focused on adapting the model to make it fully applicable to the EIB, and using it to assess the macroeconomic impact of investments supported by the EIB Group, including under the European Fund for Strategic Investments.

For results and further information see:

An in-depth methodological report describing the model - Assessing the macroeconomic impact of the EIB Group

Podcast – An economic model, a million equations and Lego

Press Brief – EIB Group macroeconomic impact assessment

Blog story about the results for 2015-2016 – Big jobs, growth impact from EIB and Investment Plan

Press release about the results for 2015-2016 – New figures on impact of EIB Group investment on jobs and growth: 2.25 million more jobs expected by 2020



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