Anlin Zhou, Celine Ip, Kanchan Kargwal, Marissa Ruiz and Thomas Yue – a team of students from University of British Columbia and University of Toronto – took part at the first EIB Climate Survey hackathon. The team has examined how public perceptions of climate risk respond to national environmental spending. Their research, titled Policy feedback in climate governance: Evidence from a cross-country analysis on environmental expenditure and public perceptions in the EU, explores whether increased government investment signals urgency or reassurance. Drawing on data from the EIB Climate Survey and Eurostat, the team finds that higher spending tends to heighten public concern, suggesting that visible climate investment can be a powerful tool for raising awareness and encouraging behavioural change.
Could you summarise the focus of your research? What was the main question your team set out to answer?
We studied the relationship between how much a government spends on environmental protection and how worried or concerned the public feels about climate change in the European Union. We wanted to know if government spending leads the public to relax, thinking the problem has been solved or is under control (the "Thermostat Model"), or if the spending itself acts as a signal that the problem is severe, thereby increasing public concern (the "Elite Cues Model").
Could you tell us which non-EIB datasets you used, and which questions from the EIB Climate Survey were most important for your findings?
External Databases: Our key indicator was the government's financial commitment, measured using National Expenditure on Environmental Protection (NEEP) by general government and non-profit institutions as a percentage of GDP, sourced from Eurostat’s Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA) (2022). To control for broader macroeconomic conditions, we included country-level variables, such as the Gini Index (a measure of inequality), GDP per capita from Eurostat, and Climate loss per capita from the European Environmental Agency.
EIB Climate Survey questions: We analysed three variables derived from the 2024-2025 EIB survey that measure public perception: Emotional Worry (Q7: "When you think of the potential impact of climate change on your life in the future, do you feel…"), Personal Adaptation Burden (Q8: "Do you think you will have to change and adapt the way you live…"), and Risk to Personal Assets (Q14: "How concerned are you that your home... or your car could be damaged…"). To control for variation at the individual level, we also included variables such as education, income, and gender from the 2024-2025 EIB.
If you had just 30 seconds to speak to a decision-maker or journalist, what key insights about public support for climate action would you want them to understand?
1. Government spending acts as an "Elite Cue" and increases public concern: Our research strongly supports the idea that higher government environmental spending is associated with increased public worry and greater perceived risk. When elites spend money, it signals to the public that the problem is serious and urgent.
2. Spending can serve as a strategic communication tool: This positive link between national environmental expenditure and public concern around climate change means that governments can strategically use the visibility of major climate investments to drive public awareness and encourage necessary individual and private sector behaviour changes, for example, through public-facing campaigns and visible infrastructure projects.